Bubble Watch 1.0: Where area high school teams stand with postseasons looming

By JEFF LAJOIE

Staff Writer

Published: 02-09-2023 4:17 PM

It’s that time of year.

Postseasons, both Western Mass. and statewide, are on the horizon, and local basketball and hockey teams are jockeying for position and/or a berth in the upcoming brackets.

The regular season comes to an end on Feb. 18, though fields and brackets for the Western Mass. tournaments are expected to be released on Feb. 17. The Western Mass. finals for basketball are Feb. 25 (at Holyoke H.S. or Westfield H.S.), and state tournaments are slated to begin the week of Feb. 27.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at area programs and where they stand entering crunch time. As a reminder, the top 32 teams in each division of the state tournament automatically qualify regardless of record, and any teams that fall outside the top 32 in the rankings but finish at least .500 on the season also earn a spot.

(Records, in parentheses, as of Thursday afternoon)Boys basketball

In (3): Pioneer (13-2), Mahar (10-5), Athol (11-6)

Bubble (2): Frontier (8-9), Greenfield (9-6)

Discussion: Let’s start with Pioneer.

The Panthers have already secured a state tournament berth, and were No. 6 in the most recent MIAA Division 5 Power Rankings release. If the squad can secure a top eight berth, it would be guaranteed at least two home games. In the Western Mass. tournament, Pioneer is the No. 1 seed in Class D by a healthy margin in the most recent ranking release. That would set the Panthers up to host games until the sectional final.

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Mahar (Div. 4) and Athol (Div. 5) both secured state tournament qualification by reaching double-digit wins.

The Senators (No. 37 in the most recent power rankings) are as hot as any team in the area, winning seven of their last eight games, and they’re on the cusp of a Western Mass. Class B tourney spot. They were No. 9 in the most recent release, just one spot out of a berth in the eight-team field.

Athol, No. 38 in the most recent Div. 5 power rankings, sits on the No. 6 seed line in the WMass Class C rankings. If the season ended today, the Bears would travel to No. 3 Drury in the sectional quarterfinals.

Greenfield is one win away from an automatic berth in the state tournament field, though the Green Wave are almost assuredly in as the No. 22 seed in the most recent Div. 5 Power Rankings. The team was also No. 2 in the most recent WMass Class C rankings, and would host No. 7 Renaissance in the sectional quarterfinals if the season ended today.

Frontier will undoubtedly be the most interesting team to watch over the next two weeks. The Redhawks sit at No. 42 in the most recent Div. 4 Power Rankings, outside of the top 32 needed for qualification, though they can still clinch a spot with a .500 record if they win two of their final three games. Frontier looks like it won’t earn a Western Mass. Class B tournament berth, so after playing Pioneer in its regular season finale on Tuesday, it’ll be assigned two games with other non-playoff teams. Stay tuned.

Girls basketball

In (2): Frontier (12-5), Franklin Tech (14-1)

Bubble (5): Mahar (8-5), Athol (5-9), Greenfield (5-10), Pioneer (9-5), Turners Falls (9-7)

Discussion: Two local teams have punched automatic berths into the state tournament, and several other are all but assured spots in the fields.

Frontier has won four games in a row, and sits 21st in the most recent MIAA Div. 4 Power Rankings. The Redhawks also look safely in the Western Mass. Class B tournament, ranked No. 6 at the moment, and would travel to play at No. 3 Wahconah in the quarterfinal round if the season ended today.

Franklin Tech is the other team that automatically qualified as of Thursday afternoon, and the Eagles are looking to end the season strong in hopes of securing a top 16 seed (and Round of 32 home game) in the MIAA Div. 5 tourney.

Mahar is in a good spot to qualify, though the Senators have a busy few weeks ahead with five regular season games remaining in an eight-day span. Two wins the rest of the way will punch an automatic berth, though Mahar was No. 22 in the most recent MIAA Div. 4 Power Rankings, one spot below Frontier, and is unlikely to drop outside the top 32. In the WMass Class B tourney, the Sens are seeded 7th at the moment, meaning they would travel to No. 2 Easthampton in the quarterfinal round if the season ended today.

Turners Falls needed one win to qualify automatically with a .500 record entering Thursday night’s game with Franklin Tech, and the Thunder were No. 30 in the most recent MIAA Div. 5 Power Rankings. Turners was also No. 5 in the most recent WMass Class D rankings, and would play at No. 4 Mount Everett in the sectional quarterfinals if the season ended today.

Pioneer is another team on the cusp of qualifying for the state tournament. If the Panthers defeat Putnam on Thursday, they’d be in the Big Dance, though one more win across their final six games would do the trick. The team was ranked No. 24 in the most recent MIAA Div. 5 Power Rankings, and they’re currently slotted in as the No. 3 seed in the WMass Class D field. If the season ended today, Pioneer would host No. 6 Monson in the sectional quarterfinal.

Athol has arguably the toughest hill to climb in this group in order to punch a state tournament ticket. The Bears were ranked No. 54 in the most recent MIAA Div. 5 Power Rankings, meaning a .500 record is likely the only path that will get them into the field. With six games remaining entering Thursday (four regular season games and two non-playoff tilts), Athol would need to go 5-1 the rest of the way to seal the deal.

Greenfield is an interesting case study, as the computer numbers like what the Green Wave have done this season despite a 5-10 record (entering Thursday). The team was No. 39 in the most recent MIAA Div. 5 Power Rankings, just seven spots out of a top 32 berth. The Wave would need to win out to earn a 10-10 record and an automatic bid, though they will likely have chances to help themselves in the Western Mass. Class C tournament if they can get in — currently the No. 8 seed, Greenfield would play No. 1 Springfield International in the quarterfinals if the season ended today.

Hockey

In (1): Greenfield (13-4)

Discussion: The Green Wave, the only local high school hockey program in the area, punched their state tournament ticket last month. They’re playing for postseason positioning at this point, and were in the No. 22 spot in the most recent MIAA Div. 4 Power Rankings.

Greenfield will likely be the No. 1 seed in the WMass Class C tournament, and if the season ended today, the defending sectional champions would host No. 4 Southwick in the semifinals of the four-team bracket.

Regular season games against West Springfield (Saturday) and Southwick (Feb. 18) remain before the postseason kicks off.

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